The 5-year USD or US Dollar swap curve has been rallying quite nicely, and many treasurers are keen to get a handle on where dollar rates might go. The charts I have produced here gives you an Elliott Wave Analsyst’s perspective of the price action. Most market participants know that a 50% retracement level offers some technical resistance, but there is no iron hand that compels prices to stop there. We could breach that level and proceed to the next resistance and any arm-chair analyst will tell you, ok, if that breaks, we proceed to the next level. What we should be attempting, really, is to assess the probability of that breach happening, and I am inclined to state that the odds are high for us to get a move higher, perhaps after a period of consolidation. How I make that judgement is something I cannot explain in full here, but you have my analysis of dollar USD interest rates here and the expecatation stated quite explicitly that rates are still headed up.
USD interest rate outlook, dollar swap rate outlook
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