Soybean Oil Futures Outlook 16 Dec 2010

Elliott Wave Analysis is always a work-in-progress. You can’t label a chart and command the market to obey your count! What you should so, instead, is to keep adjusting your count in line with the signals the market sends you. This does not mean a mindless switch from being a bear to a bull at the wrong time. If you have done your work properly, then you would have got the major direction for the current move right.

Take Soybean Oil Futures for example. Our outlook has been for it to go higher from the 50.71 level when we looked at it last on 29th November. Using our best judgement, we expected Soybean Futures to approach, but perhaps not exceed the prior high. Well, today we see that the previous high has been marginally exceeded. Remember, we never intended to sell until the time a swift downmove started. That was your main clue then. Remain alert for a top, but don’t sell too soon. Now that Soybean has moved higher, we come up with a new count. Take note that we haven’t done anything wrong. We are dealing with a market that has countless players in it, (don’t forget the weather when dealing with agri-commodities). This is not a light-bulb moment, rather we are looking at the picture in a new light!

Soybean could still abruptly turn, and should it trade below 51.50 directly, then the old count will kick-in again. But it is more likely that we edge higher, and perhaps around 27 Dec, there will be exhaustion around $59.68. If you see Soybean Oil Futures trade near there, you should SELL with a close by stop. This recommendation is giving you a level, unlike the previous one which said sell when it starts moving down aggressively. We are emboldened by the confluence of several factors described above. Good luck.

Finally, I am toying with the idea of making parts of this blog available only to premium subscribers! (yes $$ !)