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Nifty rallied up in 5 waves

RamkiBy 29 Comments2 Mins Read

I have been seeing several queries on the blog asking if the move to 7700 (as discussed on CNBC) is still coming, now that we have rallied up in 5 waves. So let’s try and clear up the air a bit.

The real goal of any analysis is to make money. Some people, however, want to keep proving to themselves that Elliott Waves work ( or doesn’t work). Their goal is to keep producing accurate wave counts and are happy if they get it right. Some are delighted if they can spot an occasion where someone else has got it really wrong 🙂

Remember an important point folks. NO ONE CAN TELL THE FUTURE. What we are trying to do here, with Elliott Waves, is to provide ourselves with a framework to base our trades upon. Knowing we are going to recover from around the time I gave the interview is sufficient value to make money in itself. Knowing that 8420 was a key level is additional money in the bag. (I don’t read others’ analysis, but you probably know how many others anticipated 8420 as a key level).

So what about the expectation for 7700? Is that coming? The answer is something like the following. Elliott Wave analysis is about the only approach that allows you to adjust your market expectation as you get new clues. It is a dynamic approach. You cannot draw a few lines and expect the market to follow your command. Instead, you listen to it and make changes to what you should do next.

Members of my Exclusive Club did not receive any trade ideas on the Nifty during this period. Why is that? We should know which battles to take part and which one to side step. But we did make over 13% during the rally to 8420 in one stock. Actually it moved 20%, but as conservative traders, we were content with taking 13%.

Don’t forget that I also discussed Tata Motors in that interview!

NIfty 10Jul15

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29 Comments

  2. Mahesh on

    hi sir,
    I am new to market & still learning Elliott wave.
    I would like to thank to you for this blog.
    Request you to keep posting your latest wave counts for retail people like us.
    Thank You,

    Reply
  3. Shiv on

    Dear Mr. Ramki

    First of all let me thank you for such a great blog and fantastic books that you have written (I realized the value of your first book rather late). I first bought your book in 2011 but like a complete idiot I never bothered to read it. Somehow I discovered the book again in my comp last month and started reading it. And needless to say I was hooked to the magic of EW (thanks to your simple writing and excellent explanations with examples). Since then I have explored and read every single blog post of yours (its a treasure for a learner like me). Honestly speaking I learnt more about market behavior in last one month than past several years as an observer of the market. I have also bought your second book and thoroughly enjoying it (another gem I must admit). I am starting my journey in financial market thanks to the confidence given by your books and your blog posts. I have also started counting waves (I know I have a long way to go.) and I am looking forward to a successful journey ahead. Hopefully I will be able to join your premium blog in future. Thank you again for the fantastic service that your blog is providing. Please keep up the good work.

    Best regards,

    Shiv

    Reply
    • Amitoj on

      Dear Ramki

      I endorse the the sentiments expressed by shiv and i have an exact experience as shiv.

      U have been of immense help to us.

      Apart from the elliot wave analysis, its the mentality you teach to be humble be conservative is highly appreciable

      Thank you so much for the book and the blog

      Reply
    • Ramki Ramakrishnan on

      Manoj, I know that we all would like to make the fastest buck!But the market has its own mind. I am reasonably confident that in a few years Orchid will be trading near the 200 level. So I am holding a position in this stock of a size that I can sleep comfortably no matter how long the current bear market lasts. For someone who wants to get into this stock anew, the best time will be when this correction in the broader market nears its end.

      Reply
  6. Prabh on

    Ramki Sir,

    In one of your interview to CNBC you stated ICICBank to touch 255 levels.On 04th Sep,it exactly made a low of 255 levels.Excellent analysis sir.

    However Sir 255 does not obey to any of the fib levels.Nearest fib level comes out to be 244 level which is 0.618 fib level from 151 low to 393 high.Kindly can you elaborate please.

    Reply
    • Ramki Ramakrishnan on

      HI Prabh, I don’t remember how I got that number. As I look at dozens of charts daily and my profession deals with numbers (running a busy dealing room of a bank), you will appreciate this response!

      Reply
  8. Banurekha Satheesh on

    Namaste Sir,

    This is the first time I’m registering my comment. As you had mentioned 7700 is done. What are the chances of bottoming at this 7500-7700 levels? Your guidance about the next possibilities would be highly helpful. Awaiting your response.

    Reply
    • Ramki Ramakrishnan on

      Banurekha, Namaste. I think the chances of a low having been posted already is increasing with the more time we spend away from there. As I mentioned in a CNBC interview a couple of weeks ago, if we get one more test of the recent lows, I will gladly be buying.

      Reply
  9. viren on

    Hello Sir,

    Do you think we have already made a bottom @ 7538 and now new bull run i.e subwave v will start….. which will take nifty to above 12000 levels….

    if 7538 is not the bottom then what will be the new bottom?

    Thanks,
    Viren

    Reply
    • Ramki Ramakrishnan on

      Viren and Gaurav, you have the FWTFF book in your hands. What does it say? Look whether a five wave move has been completed. If yes, then look for a correction and a faster move higher. Your job is to determine whether a five wave move is over. Use Fibonacci relationships to gain confidence.

      Reply
  10. Piyush Goyal on

    Sir,
    I was looking at this older post and found that after 5 wave move we had another upmove taking it to near 8640 before coming down. Now I was trying to fit EWP here but could not. (weather ABC pattern or extended 3rd wave or 5th wave). So now how can we see this, as chart not following EWP or am i missing something. Your guidance will be very helpful to my learning.

    It has been long time since you posted on Nifty so please can you take Nifty chart in your next post.

    Regards,
    Piyush Goyal.

    Reply
  11. Manoj on

    Dear Ramki,
    Nifty has cracked below Aug low and so has US markets. If time permits would request your view on the likely path that Nifty would travel in next few months.
    Thanks
    Manoj

    Reply
  12. SUMANJIT MAITY on

    Dear Sir,
    Give some clue on Nifty , Bank Nifty , USDINR and Crude Oil..
    Your some comments are very much needed at present market scenario..
    Please Sir its very much needed..

    Reply
  14. Narasimmamurthy on

    Sir
    I am keen to read the you first book on Elliot waves.I find that it is available only as an e book. Perhaps I can buy and then print out to enable easy reading!
    I find the concept of Elliot waves fascinating. I thank you for the blog sharing the ideas on this absorbing topic

    Reply
  15. Sandy on

    Hi Ramki,
    Do you still think Orchid will go to 200Rs in near term? Stock is trading around 38 levels do u think this is best level to buy the stock?

    Thanks

    Reply
    • Ramki Ramakrishnan on

      Sandy, It is going to be a long wait, but we will get there. I am long personally. But it is not a trading position, I have always maintained that this is an investment. The stock is out of favor with investors right now. But the signal for a bottom will come only after it breaks smartly above 55. So I will not add until that time.

      Reply

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