Gold 16Sep09

Every now and then I run into these situations when I have to revise my analysis of several instruments at the same time. The simple fact is NO ONE can forecast the markets. What one can do is to determine with a reasonable degree of confidence about the likelihoodof a certain pattern developing in the future. An honest practitioner of Elliott Wave analysis makes this plain at the outset. The markets are dynamic. We have to change as the markets change. Can one still claim that Elliott Wave analysis, (or ANY kind of analysis) offer value? I believe so, because one always has to remember that analysis and money-management go hand-in-hand. A proper analysis gives you a road map, so that you don’t drive blindly. Sometimes the map shows a road that leads to a bridge that has been swept away by floods. You cannot keep driving because you will drown. The map was right, but the bridge has fallen. So you have to take another road. With this in mind, let us turn to Gold.

There is support at the 1000 level and we are likely to stay bid until we reach at least 1067. If sentiment remains strong, we could even reach 1160. But from one of these levels, we should expect a set back. Eventually we will see a re-test of 850 and then 700. Everything depends on your time frame. If you have a one year time frame, you shouldn’t be surprised to see a dip to these levels. However, for now, you should remain bullish for a move to the said targets.