In my Elliott Wave update of India’s Nifty Index that I wrote on 4 March 2012, I had anticpated that we will have some considerable weakness from around 5600. And indeed, we saw a decline all the way to 4770 by 4 June 2012. (See Looks like Indian stock market rally is fading: NSE India) I had suggested a target for the NIFTY index at 4355 in one of my more recent updates, and there are several readers who are asking about that call. They are pointing out that the index has recovered to 5290 and therefore are we going to see the weakness start anytime soon.
First of all, let me point out that the decline to 4770 happened directly after my March ELliott Wave update, without any recovery to 5290. The subsequent recovery to current levels is looking quite strong. Hence, I think we should refrain from being overly bearish at present, and instead focus on short term trading from the long side. There is a chance that we could drift higher to as high as even 5555, but the short term waves from the 4770 low need to develop some more twists and turns before we can place a definite target to the upisde. Once this current bullish sentiment wanes, I will re-evaluate the downside target and post my comments. One of the key benefits that WaveTimes offers readers is teaching you how to adapt to changing market conditions.Rather than trying to show how clever we are with wave counts, we should always attempt to figure out low-risk trading ideas. When you start thinking like that, you will transform your trading.
Ramki Ramakrishnan
28 Comments
sir,
can you please post the chart of nifty showing the count.
thankz for your valuable view….
Any thoughts on S&P would be greatly appreciated.
Hi Trader66, no change to my bearish outlook in the big picture. Losing momentum in the very near term but too soon to say its all over for the bulls. It is, however, not recommended to play from the long side from hereon.
Thanks.
In the near short term, I wouldn’t rule out a deep correction to 5150 levels. There seems to be a gap to be filled between 5160-5180, beginning of wave 3 before we head up to 5450, even 5505.
Guess, my first leg of forecast above has come true. Nifty down at 5128.20 as of 24July2012. Has already broken up from the falling channel. First up, a move to 5200 levels not ruled out. Another gap (of July 23rd) to be filled. All thanks to following Elliott Wave rules & guidelines.
Hi Ramki, the current bullishness of the Nifty definitely seems to be waining as Nifty is not able to cross the resistances of 5338 to 5344 for the entire last week and is trading in a narrow range. Also the wave counts are not clear. I think that a couple of days would make the picture clearer. But presently it seems that Nifty has topped out.
Your valuable re-evaluation would be most welcome at this juncture.
Thanks and regards.
Hello Dr Sanjay, I am still bearish in the big picture!! But it is too soon to say that Nifty has topped out. You will see….
While EW counts are unclear, broader market in a way is showing contradictory signals to what most analysts are saying. The number of stocks whose valuation bands is expanding and the number of stocks whose upward momentum cycle is due is rising by the day.
I have no doubt in my mind that we are heading to a very big upmove from here. It doesn’t sound logical as yields in EU, INR in India and Dow/S&P are getting into a terrible shape. But somehow, Indian market along with some Asian markets is showing different signs. I am vouching for minimum 5800 this year and perhaps an all time high in the making.
Lets see.
Hello Super Trader, Thank you for your comments.As you are probably aware, I remain bearish for the S&P500, and unless India is going to diverge, we will probably see Indian markets also bogged down. Of course, I could be completely wrong on both markets…..
Hi Ramki,
I found this guy who did an Elliott Wave analysis on the Sensex back in August 2010 and it has been spot on until now! I can’t seem to find his latest update on this market, but he seems to be very knowledgeable like yourself and has a great track record with other markets.
According to this post, the Sensex should be headed to 11,000. Would like to hear what you think on his count.(link)
Michael W
HI Michael, Thank you for writing. There are literally thousands of people who write about the markets. Unfortunately, I dont read others’ comments except occasionally in order to remain unbiased in my own analysis.
Hello Ramki Sir
thanks for your much wanted comments. it is noticeable that you are keeping options open for both sides. it is true that Nifty is facing strong resistance at 5400 as has been observed by many here. it is also true that neither Nifty is able to break below 5200 in a short while. the sum is that Nifty is consolidating before a reasonably strong move.
it would be kind of you Sir to publish your counts.
thank you very much Sir
kind regards
Hi Parimal, my suggestion to you is not to force a count when it doesn’t jump at you from the screen! Be patient. When the time is right, it all becomes very easy and that is when you should get involved in the markets.
Ramki:
I really enjoy your posts. I’m new to wave theory and plan to read your book. I’m in the U.S. so I always try convert your information to a U.S. traded etf. Based in the closing price today Nifty 50 was 5275.15 and the etf (INDY) was 21.70. So am I correct to always divide your figures by 243.09 to get the equivalent numbers for the etf. (5275.15 divided by 243.09=21.70)
Thanks Jim
Hi Jim, it is not that straightforward because the usd/inr exchange rate also moves on its own. So it is best that you analyze the ETF independently and yes, my book will teach you how to do that. As the wave counts for the immediate future needs sorting out, you have time to have a quick read and see if you get some clues yourself! Good luck
Dear Ramki, thanks for the reply.
Dear sir,
Have been reading your views and trying to learn from it. Many thanks. When time permits could you please give your views on Indraprastha Gas. One fundamental analyst has a very bullish long term view (12 years+) on this and I would like a good entry point.
Sir,
As per my count the ongoing retracement B(b) may retrace upto 4990 and B (c) may move upto 5560 to top out and resume the downside. Kindly give your comments to what extent my counts are correct.
Thanks and regds
Tanuja
Hi Tanuja, Thanks for writing. Unfortunately I am not able to verify wave counts of individual readers, and hope you will understand. My wave counts serve as a broad road map. Use that as one sounding board, but feel free to experiment using the methods described in my book. As I often remind readers, your count is as good as anyone else’s so long as you are following the rules and guidelines.
dear ramki,
pls update Nifty -Elliot wave count in current scenario
HI Ramki sir,
Today Nifty Touch 5564,
Wt Next???
Ramkiji
I had bought your Book and reading.
I would like to ask you one question as regard to impulse move.
If I label wave 1 & 2 and the third wave itself breaks in to wave5, ,and but the lower degree wave 2 penetrates top of wave-1 of higher degree and then moves ahead is it a valid wave 3 count of higher degree or would be considered a correction
Hi Mac P, This is a normal happening, especially if the overlap by minor wave 2 of the third into higher wave 1 is small and followed by a massive 3 of third.
Hi,
looking forward to an Nifty & sensex update.
Ramki Sir,
Do you anticipate the current movement in Indian Nifty Index as Ending Diagonal Triangle whose 5th way ended in May 2013 when Nifty reached 6224 levels?If thats the case can we expect Nifty to retrace back to start of ending Triangle.Also it makes me confused whether we are in ending diagonal or leading the later being rare.Kindly can you provide some tips as how to recognise them.
Prabh, There are numerous possibilities in the market and one can never be sure what will happen next. Once you learn the theory, you approach the market with your own paradigm, Follow your own count until it is proved wrong. You dont need any guru.