Those of who who read my book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” would have seen that I used the New Zealand Dollar in quite a few examples. ( I have no special love for any currency, by the way. It just happened that when I wrote the book during August 2011, this currency showed many nice Elliott Wave patterns).
In a subsequent Elliott Wave update of the New Zealand Dollar, posted on October 23, 2011, I continued to be bearish. I suggested that there was a low risk possibility for the move to finish its then current recovery around 0.8150 before a nice sell off. The actual high happened only a 100 pips higher, but one could have easily adjusted his count as we appraoched the 0.8150 to figure out where the move will finish. The NZDUSD fell to a new low of 0.7367!
You have to bear in mind that Elliott Wave analysis is always a work-in-progress. Our goal is to stay one step ahead of the markets, but not to be deterministic about the future. Accordingly, when one of the WaveTimes Club members posted a request to revist the moves in NZD, I decided that all of you readers could benefit by this update you see today. I am trying to present you with a broad road map of what I currently think could happen. It is very forward looking, and is thus vulnerable to being completely wrong. However, this is how I operate. I consider the big picture and ask myself what my instincts tell me. This inner voice uses what I have learned over the years, and pays particular attention to wave personalities. (There is a good portion of my book devoted to this subject). Accordingly, the most recent rally in the New Zealand Dollar has a unique personality that suggests we could go back to 0.8300 levels next year. However, there is some more work to be done before that move will happen. I think we will likely get a dip back to around 0.7600 if we fail around 0.7900. The bigger rally in the NZD will come only later.
You now have before you Elliott Wave comments on the New Zealand Dollar done on 4 December 2011. Key levels and minor waves have been marked clearly for your understanding. Please bear in mind that I am not recommending you a trade here. Trading requires you to fine tune the entry levels as the market approaches the levels you identify in the big picture. However, with the knowledge you have gained by reading this blog and its innumerable examples, you should be in a position to use Elliott Waves the way it is meant to be. If you have learned that, then I would be quite happy because my main goal for writing all these years is to share what little I know of this fine art, and to give you the tools to handle your trading and investment decisions in a more disciplined way. One doesn’t become poorer by sharing his knowledge! Go ahead and pass this on to all your friends. As my friend Bob often says, “Good Fortune”!
19 Comments
SIR I ALONG WITH MANY OTHERS WOULD APPRECIATE A NOTE ON USD JPY.
REGARDS
Hi Ramki
From the charts that you posted,
Is the ABC correction on the daily chart, minor waves of Wave A of next higher degree?
This is then followed by an irregular correction, waves (a)(b) and (c)( which is still in play) making up Wave B of one higher degree.
Wave C of one higher degree will follow in 2012 and last at least 3 months and may even extend to 5 months and beyond, bringing the currency to a new low?
Tks
Hi Michael, you are correct about the direction but I am not certain about the time frame for the moves
Mr. Ramki,
While an Irregular Flat correction to 0.8314 is a possibility, a triangle such as the one in the attached chart is also possible http://chart.ly/wod8cdv . Either way there is money to be made by going long on a correction. Also take a look at the possible triangle scenario in AUD/USD – http://chart.ly/kto3eoq . A look at the VIX also suggests a selloff in risk early 2012 http://chart.ly/ya7u8b5
Very informative to read your perspective as always.
regards,
-Srinivasan.
hi Ramki
Thanks for your newest comments on kiwi! As a Elliott Wave newbie, I am having much difficulty analysing irregular waves or counts(such as GBP/USD pair). Often i see wave 4 overlaping wave 2 in GBP(which is not sopposed to happen according to wave rules), and this confuses me a lot.maybe i am counting the wrong way in GBP… Could you give me some advice or hints on these waves?
tons of thanks!
Justin
Justin , You are not alone in facing thus difficulty. Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 in an impus phase. Period. If you are unable to count the waves correctly because of such an overlap, then go to one degree higher and check it out. Otherwise stay out until clarity emerges. Good luck
Thanks！I think i ll stay out and watch. 🙂
Hope one day you could also give a review on waves like GBP on wavetimes.com.
Hello Sir, hope you are well. thanks for many recent updates. I have been keeping an eye on NZDUSD pair, and based on your analysis, I have been bullish on it, and waiting for a 3 waves pull back, until when I opened the 5mins chart, I can see a ‘Leading Diagonal’ look like pattern formed, and I could count 5 sub waves in each wave in the diagonal. That contradict with the bullish wave count on the hourly or 4hrs degree.
Would be good to have your comment on this please. here is my chart:
http://screencast.com/t/h0qfem05
Thanks
Hello Yan, If you read my comments carefully, I was bearish for the NZD in the near term, and was looking for a move to 0.7600 at least. The Kiwi was around 0.7767 when I wrote that, and the speed of the move makes me wonder if we have more room on the downside. I was saying the rally to 0.8300 will come only next year. It is good that you are experimenting with what you have learned in the book. But please read my comments on wavetimes carefully because there are nuances that often give readers a tip.
This one should continue to find place in your next book – amazing call.
A picture perfect move from the point your analysis appeared – i put in lot of capital on this trade and am smiling all the way..
‘c’ wave in play now – whether we started off with a leading diagonal or it was a proper 5-wave move would get clarified if you have a closer look and comment. Thanks Ram!!
Hi RKG,
Looks like B is forming as a triangle instead of expanded flat as anticipated. If this assumption is correct then (c) leg of the triangle is nearing completion. If my understanding is correct, ending diagonal internal are 3-3-3-3-3 instead of 5-3-5-3-5 and so far we have got 5-3-5 which indicates that probably triangle is forming. Ramki, appreciate your comment whenever you have time to look at this chart.
Thanks,
Pasupathi
Dear Pasupathi – thanks for that.
Finding it a bit difficult to trace a triangle here. If i start from 15th Dec (0.7457), a 5 wave move appears to have ended on 28th at 0.7782. Say (i)
I consider the dip to 0.7647 on 29th as a (ii)
And therefore (iii) in progress now.
0.8166 (or 161.8 of (i)) should be the endpoint of (iii).. well too early to conclude that but thats my working count. i could be wrong…
I took Ramki’s analysis and went short EURNZD on 27th Dec around 1.6850. Square now – eager to see how this (NZD=) develops for the next trade.
hi ramki , again your prophetic charts have become reality.
as you requested a reminder the kiwi is heading towards 83.
i fancy may run even higher.
thanks paul
Paul, Thank you very much. You made my day!
Ram, NZDUSD high today =>0.8296. A few pips below your ‘call level’. Terrific call as always!!
RKG, As always, you have been a great friend. Thanks for the message.
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Hi Ramki,
I have just discovered you and Elliot Waves today when I come across your interview on the Forbes web site. I must say this looks very interesting and I will have to read one of your books. I’m particularly interested in the NZD and amazed to see that your earlier predictions have now come true. Is there any chance that you could update your prediction on the NZD. I’m definitely looking forward to reading your book and exploring Elliot Waves further.
Hi Rich, welcome aboard. Sure, NZD is one of the currencies that I look at. In fact, there are several examples of this in my book. Best wishes