Raw sugar trading at 3-1/2 year lows and traders are panicking. Technically driven selling and stop loss orders have been driving this soft commodity lower and lower since peaking in 2011 at a 30-year high. Can Elliott Wave analysis help the particpants in this important market? Sure. Take a look at this article that I contributed to Forbes yesterday.
10 Comments
Hi Ramki, For ETFS (Symbol SUGA), for the same time period and timefrme as your chart, wave 4 is slightly overlapping with wave 1. Wave 1 ends at 19.26 and wave four ends at 19.62. Is that to be ignored?
Mahesh, I generally read each instrument by itself. It is possible that i come up with a different count for SUGA. Be aware that trading is different from doing just the analysis, although it is a good first step.
But generally speaking Ramki what should be the error tolerance in cases where wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 or when wave 2 goes below start of wave 1? would you say 0.1% of the price is a reasonable error tolerance level?
hi
ramki sir,
thanks for raw sugar analysis, is excellent as always,
by the way the link of tiny URL above is not working,
thanks
Hi Chauhan, I will fix that link. But if you had copied it on to a browser it would have worked.
Sir,
I am a novice, but still I would like to dare to ask you that can this analysis be proved wrong by the market?
The fact that wave 3 equal to wave 1 has raised my eyebrows. Yes it is possible, but if I assume 3 wave to be 161.8% then I can redraw the picture as:
Either the 3 wave shown may be the internal 3 wave.
OR the 5 wave projection at 15.22 can be the finish of internal third wave (the 5 waves of internal 1 are clearly visible in first chart).
And the 5 wave can target even lower than authors expectation.
I may be wrong as I don’t have exact calculations, but this is a try and your guidance will help me move one step further in EW analysis.
Regards,
Piyush Goyal.
Piyush, Start with the assumption that anything is possible. And remember that trading the markets is different from doing just the analysis. How I deal with the markets as they unfold is something that is only available for the members of the exclusive club. If your goal is to learn to analyze the markets, then you are going in the right direction, i.e. being aware of some of the other possibilities.
Hi Mr. Ramki,
I remember an interesting analysis, you made on natural gas some time ago, and i wil look at it again soon. The market is confusing at this moment, and i wonder if you have some new insight that you want to share with us on that matter.
Best regards
Aria
hi
Ramki sir,
your last analysis of raw sugar worked wonderfully well , but that counts was different, now days it a around 11 us$, your insight will be helpfully.
Hello Chauhan, The goal of any analysis is to make money, not to have the correct wave count 🙂