About ten days ago I posted an hourly chart of NYMEX Natural Gas, and suggested that perhaps we were unfolding in a diagonal triangle. I also went out of the way to suggest that it was unlikely that we were in the middle of a ‘third of a third’ wave because typically such a position would require a fast paced sell off. To put it mildly, that was two mistakes in one post! Prices have continued to edge lower, and the bearishness is only getting more pronounced. While there are still some valid arguments against the 3rd of 3rd count, in the spirit of what WaveTimes has long stood for, ie what matters is not your count, but whether you were right in the direction, I have to concede that I got it wrong this time.
10 Comments
For me wave 4 was a clear triangle that ended where you were counting as wave 2 of 5 and we are now in wave 3 of 5 of 5 in the post triangle thrust were we can calculate the target based on Fibonacci and the triangle range
this even makes you a greater trader, love your work more and more please dont stop this valuable advice you give each time, thanks a million!
Ramko Sir : As Osaki too states if a stalwart like you has hinted to a probable mistake then you are truely a great trader and more so a wonderful human being. Elliot has this shade of confusion with everyone.
Hi Ramki
Great site. Here is a long term count of NG that I put together. You might find it helpful in clarifying the short term. Let me know what you think.
elliottwavecounts.blogspot.com/2011/10/natural-gas-setup-ng-and-long-term.html
Arvind
kindly update NG chart.
Dear Ramki,
Could you please comment again on Natural Gas
THX
Miro
Hi Ramki,
Natural gas has made a decade low recently (2.204) and I am very interested to know if we are seeing a long term or mid term bottom forming. Also, I notice that natural gas prices move up when stock markets go down (eg.2008)
Please comment on where you think the price is headed in the next few weeks.
Sincerely,
Karan
Hello Karan, Thanks for your comments. I am still not comfortable with the price action and wouldn’t be surprised if it fails to sustain any recovery. Be patient for the first proper sings of a bull market to emerge and then get involved. While it is dropping, just keep thinking it will continue the trend and stay out.By the way, WaveTimes is not geared to offer any trading advice. Sorry.
Great post. Personally, I have been following natural gas stokcs for the last few weeks and I see a lot of potential over this coming decade or so. The commodity natural gas is about 10x cheaper than right now, but stock gurus are saying that by the year 2016 we’ll start to see natural gas prices jump because of increasing demand and high oil prices. Ive also been following much smaller energy companies too such as Alon U.S. Energy Partners, whose stock soared nearly 56% in a 2 week stretch.
Hi Picou, The last time I looked at natural gas was Sep 2011 & I got it wrong! Thanks for writing