From an Elliott Wave point of view, the recovery in the Gernam Dax index from its June 5, 2012 low of 5914 does not look like a third wave. In addition, the prior recovery from the September 2011 low of 4965 to 7194 looks like a three wave movement, followed by an overlap. Thus, while we should acknowledge the possibility of the index making one more significant recovery before a more serious decline in the big picture, the near term also warns of an impending completion of a minor diagonal. This is not to say you should run out today and short the DAX. Just be aware that as we witness a slow down in momentum in the ‘e’ wave of the diagonal, we should get ready for a correction. The attached chart of the German Dax shows my Elliott Wave counts in detail.
