I would like you to go back to my USDCHF update of 19 July 2011, where readers were urged to follow the progression of the fifth wave very carefully, because once that was completed, we will get a correction that will last all summer.
I believe that today’s low at 0.7622 marks the end of an important cycle for the USDCHF. The Swiss National Bank has made it clear that it will not tolerate any further strength in the Swiss Franc, and we got a rapid 2% recovery in USDCHF.
Be aware that the sentiment is still very bearish, and I expect some profit taking to emerge above 0.7900. But I will look to trade the USDCHF from the long side, by buying on dips for the next few weeks.
IMportant point. We just finished an extended fifth wave, So even if we get a full retest of the lows, (including a NEW lOW below 0.7622), just use that dip to go long USDCHF. We should be seeing 0.7920 in just a few days, I am hoping. But be sure to use stops, and trade affordable position sizes.
I just found your website and I find the information you provide very helpful. Big thank you for that! I was wondering about the pending correction of the USDCHF you were talking about. It looks like the 5th wave was extending even more to the downside than you anticipated.
Anyhow, what target would you expect for the coming upside correction? Do you also have a chart which shows the longer term picture, maybe one that starts in 2000 or at least in 2007ish?
Thank you so much,
Hello Heiko, welcome abroad. I will be revisiting the usdchf chart v soon. Just FYI I have included this particular moment in my upcoming book to illustrate how I was misled. Best of luck.
I am reading your book with great interest, I am trying to apply EW principles on Forex, I think I have spotted one EW on USDCHF and would like to get your opinion to see if you agree with my count.
I see that USDCHF is in the middle of fifth wave based on the following:
1- wave 1 started in 3.4.2012 and finished in 15.4.2012.
2- wave 2 started in 16.4.2012 and finished in 1.5.2012.
3- wave 3 started in 2.5.2012 and finished in 1.6.2012
4- wave 4 started in 2.6.2012 and finished in 20.6.2012
5- wave 5 started in 21.6.2012 and if I measure the distance between wave 0 to 3 and multiply that by 38.2% and add that number to the end of wave 4 I will find that we reached the first target of wave 5 however there is a potential for wave 5 to visit 0.9902 based on 61.8%.
I wanted to send you a screenshot with EW marked clearly but unfortunately the web as far as I can see does not allow attachments.
I would like to get your input on the above wave count to measure my level of understanding of EW.
Hello Basem, One of the first things I thought youn would have learned from my book is to go back and start your count from a significant low. SO either you start at 0.7085 low seen on Aug 9, 2011 or for the shorter term, from the low seen at 0.8927 on Feb 24, 2012. Good luck
Thanks for your reply.
Do you see a fifth wave ending at 0.9945 in USD/chf. ?
Hello Amit, The 61.8% retracement could see some profit taking, but I have a feeling we could visit 1.0330/80. Give me a shout when we reach 0.9965 and i will have another look