I decided to look at the Rubber Futures being traded at Singapore just for fun, and found some interesting details. Elliott Wave analysis of rubber futures seems to work just fine!
Key Rubber futures recovered last Friday as sentiment improved on a recovery in oil prices after a sell-off the day before. Firmness in other commodities also helped.
Wavetimes would like you to study two charts to appreciate how this commodity behaves technically. The first chart looks at the bigger picture to demonstrate how the futures price of the August 2011 contract of Rubber declined exactly to the key 70.7% retracement level (382) before staging a remarkable recovery to 529. The second chart shows you how the most recent sell-off stopped quite precisely at the 138.2% key Fibonacci projection level which marks an intermediate support.
The current recovery in Rubber futures from 431 is likely to run out of steam around the 465 levels from where a fresh bout of weakness can take the price down to around 420. Only a weekly close above 471 would trigger the need to reassess the technical picture.
-Ramki Ramakrishnan
8 Comments
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How prudent is to apply EW Studies on MCX Gold & Copper, where exchange rate influences significantly?
Shall i apply it independently on MCX instruments ( irrespective of their parent exchange- COMEX/LME) ?
Raj, you should analyze your MCX on its own without reference to comex. Your market participants react to the prices in your currency. The crowd behavior in that market has its own nuances.
Thanks Sir, I was in a dilemma as few experienced guys warned me not to do the same.
What are the repercussions of ‘Rising window’ formed on a chart after expiry of futures contract(i.e when next contract data is plotted after the expiry)? Does it act like a support/resistance?
Raj, I overcome such problems by using continuation charts where possible
Sir, i am just asking in the same context. Suppose, a contract was settled at 100rs and the high on the same day was 102rs on the expiry, and next month contract data whose open and low was same at 105rs and settled on 110rs the following day was added to the continuation chart. Then, such a rising window at 102rs would act as a support or not?
Raj, with Elliott waves the supports come at familiar Fibonacci retracements and projections for C waves. Classical analysis might consider other levels such as what you mention.