Well, it is about 3 weeks since my last post here, and many of you must be wondering if I have forgotten you! Of course not. WaveTimes will always be around as long as I am. The paid service has been keeping me busy as well. And during January, I made a quick trip to India to attend the wedding of my friend’s son…..
Anyway, here I am, boldly sharing with you a trade that went wrong in the paid service. First, read the trade idea carefully, and then let us figure out what went wrong.
The trade was first posted on 6 Jan 2013 as follows:
Sometimes we arrive at a fork in the road. We can see clearly both the roads beyond, but we don’t know which one to take. Elliott Wave analysis of Micro Technologies India Ltd has brought us to such a fork. We have either completed a 3rd wave that traveled 161.8% of the first wave, or we have completed an extended 5th wave. The implications are profound. If an extended fifth wave has been completed at the Rs 38 level, we should soon be on our way to wave ii of the fifth, and this comes at the Rs66 level. On the other hand, if we have just seen a 4th wave unfold as a triangle, we should look for one more move down and then a recovery. What should we do?
15 Jan 2013 update
MICT came to a low of 41.60 today. As your stop is below 38, at this level you are risking less than Rs 4 per share. I am considering we are all LIVE on this trade. Will post an update when a clear move happens on either side.
(Then on 26 Jan, we bit the bullet)
26 Jan 2013 update
We have been stopped out on this trade, losing around Rs 4 per stock. Thankfully, we had kept the position small because we were forewarned that although the returns were attractive if it worked, there was a clear possibility of the count being wrong, and that we could go down all the way to below Rs 32. There is no doubt that some of you are disappointed, and perhaps this is a good time to consider if this service is really for you. Please be aware that professional traders take small losses quite regularly because when they win, it more than adequately compensates for the small losses. However, in order to survive for the big day, you need to keep your trade size reasonably small. No single loss should upset you too much. If this is not the case, then trading is not for you! Most beginning traders give up because they trade too big a position hoping to strike it rich quickly. Unfortunately, in the real world, such notions are pure fiction.
Let us remain optimistic. Our Nifty Trade was a clear winner and there will be many such opportunities going forward
NOw what do you think we did wrong? Unless you are an arm chair analyst, you will realize that we were following a plan. We had identified the opportunity and the risk associated with it. We knew how much to risk, and when to get out. Only Elliott Waves give these advantages, the edge.
I am glad that you are back!
Now that it seems that Athens General Index completed 5 waves up from 471p. to 1030p., could you pl post a comment about its graph?
I have realized in the last few months that identifying the end of wave 4 is critical in the wave analysis , to project the completion of a wave ( from the smallest to the largest wave ) . I use multiple time frames and MACD to figure out wave 4 (actually more than fibonacci) . Any suggestions from your vast experience ?
Thank you for all your insights.
HI JOb, One suggestion is to spot a mini 5 waves in the direction of the Major trend as signalling the end of 4th has already been seen
You mean to say wave i of wave 5 ?
Rainmaker, I dont know now because I look at so many charts. So long as my message is clear, then I am happy!
i appreciate you for sharing your wrong trade publicly. that is yr greatness sir.
you mentioned about correct trade in nifty…..you have not given any details for it……
sensex seems tired …..faster retracement in last short term time span…..making lower top below low made on 24/01/2013 of 19884. yday low was 19865………….
more over some divergent moves in large caps and mid caps……mid caps were corrected earlier from first week of jan…..
your views on sensex please….if time permits…..
You have mentioned that niofty tradfe was a clear winner. If that trade is over, could you please post a update on Nifty
Hi, dear sir, Ramkiji,
in second chart u mansion wave 5 tgt , buy here wave 3 are 161% ret. so problelity the wave 5 is extend, buz wave 3 is normal ….plz guide
Alpesh, anything is possible.. my analysis gives you my interpretation at that time. The goal is to take low risk trades, and be prepared to run for cover at the first hint of trouble.